Forecasts and prospects of development of world tourism

According to experts' forecasts growth of international tourism in the first 10-20 years of the XXI century. will decline somewhat. If the level of 1999 and 2000. global growth rate of just over 5%, in the next five years is expected to decline to 4.4% by 2005 and to 4.3% by 2013

   Big changes in the structure and projected out. The share of inter-regional travel long distances is growing:

 in 1995 it was 15%, and by 2013 is expected to increase to 25%. This trend can be explained not only by the fact that people are traveling more and more, but the fact that the modern tourism industry can offer tourists a variety of opportunities for travel fairly high level of security guarantees.

 Experts predict that the number of foreign tourist arrivals in 2013 will reach 964 million people compared to 657 million in 1999, but it will grow much slower. By 2020, the number of international tourist arrivals will reach 1.6 billion people and is three times higher than rates in 1995

    WTO predicts rapid growth of outbound tourism. Largest countries - suppliers of tourists in 2020 will be: Germany (about 163 million trips), Japan (141 million), the USA (123 million), Ki-tai (100 million) and the UK (96 million). Russia, whose people were able to mass exodus abroad in 1991 alone, will put on the international travel market by 2020, about 30 million tourists.

    Growth of outbound tourism from Europe and the Mediterranean will slow down, while the rate of increase in the number of trips abroad in South-East Asia will remain quite high, despite the economic difficulties in the region.

     The forecast of tourist destinations, made a study of the WTO «Tourism: 2020 Vision», identified the most promising areas and types of tourism XXI-making table. The most popular forms of tourism in 2020 will be: adventure, ecological, kulturnopoznavatelny, thematic and cruises.

   The WTO also predicts that the time people will be allocated to a rest, will be reduced. According to studies in the XXI travelers. will be "rich in money but poor in time."